Fitch Ratings (Warsaw, 13 Aug 2021) has revised the Outlook on Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of seven Ukrainian local and regional governments’ (LRGs) from Stable to Positive.

The revision of the Outlooks on the IDRs of the seven Ukrainian LRGs follows the revision of the Outlook on the Ukrainian sovereign to Positive on 6 August 2021, as the ratings of Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkov, Lviv, Mariupol, Nikolaiev and Odessa are capped by the sovereign ratings.

Committee date: 12 August 2021

There was an appropriate quorum at the committee and the members confirmed that they were free from recusal. It was agreed that the data was sufficiently robust relative to its materiality. During the committee no material issues were raised that were not in the original committee package. The main rating factors under the relevant criteria were discussed by the committee members. The rating decision as discussed in this rating action commentary reflects the committee decision.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Figures as per Fitch’s sovereign data for 2020 and forecast for 2023, respectively:

• GDP per capita (US dollar, market exchange rate): 3,713; 4,919
• Real GDP growth (%): -4.0; 3.5
• Consumer prices (annual average % change): 2.7; 5.6
• General government balance (% of GDP): -5.7; -2.9
• General government debt (% of GDP): 53.9; 48.9
• Current account balance plus net FDI (% of GDP): 3.3; -0.3
• Net external debt (% of GDP): -11.1; -10.3
• IMF Development Classification: EM (emerging market)
• CDS Market-Implied Rating: B+

Additional information is available on: www.fitchratings.com